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CIO Insights 4Q24: In a Sweet Spot

The Value in Bitcoin Volatility

US Presidential Election: Market Impact

Credit: The Trump Effect on Bonds

The ASEAN Portfolio

CIO Industry Guide: August 2024

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Southeast Asia has become attractive to investors lately, but so have other emerging economies. Recognising key headwinds, we still see room for substantial regional prosperity in the decade ahead.

Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34

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<p><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Southeast Asia has grown despite headwinds. &nbsp;Over the last three decades, the region withstood shocks from the Asian financial crisis, the SARS pandemic, a global financial crisis, and the Covid-19 pandemic. And it stayed the course.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Southeast Asia grew, even as the China miracle siphoned manufacturing investment and jobs away from the region.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">In recent years, Southeast Asia has become more attractive to investors, but so have India, Mexico, and Eastern European countries.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">This is the right moment for Southeast Asia to leverage its newly improved investment climate and well-established, dynamic sectors.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Much of the world is bracing for lower growth because of higher interest rates, unsustainable government spending levels, trade protectionism, and the potential fallout from the US-China rivalry. But in Southeast Asia, tailwinds should prevail.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Southeast Asia comprises of six major markets and a handful of smaller ones. While there are important links between markets and opportunities to pursue regional approaches, each country&rsquo;s potential must be addressed individually.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">While many economists focus on FDI as the key barometer for confidence in an economy, we assign substantial weight to domestic investment. Most Southeast Asian countries are seeing robust growth of domestic investment, which underscores local confidence in the region&rsquo;s growth prospects relative to alternatives.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Effective government action will play a role in catalysing growth. The China model involves the state setting priorities and bending funding toward them. Execution occurs at the city and provincial levels through state-enabled &ldquo;hyper-competition.&rdquo; Entrepreneurism plays a critical role in fully realizing growth potential.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">We say, let&rsquo;s unfurl the mainsails.<br /><br /></span><br /><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">To read the full report, click here to&nbsp;<strong><a href="/pdfController.page?pdfpath=/content/article/pdf/AIO/082024/240801_insights_sea_outlook.pdf">Download the PDF</a></strong>.</span><br /></span></p>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Taimur Baig, Ph.D.</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Chief Economist - Global</span></h5>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:taimurbaig@dbs.com">taimurbaig@dbs.com</a></span></div>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Radhika Rao</span></h4>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Ma Tieying, CFA</span></h4>
<h5 class="designation"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, &amp; Taiwan&nbsp;</span></h5>
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<h4 class="name"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Chua Han Teng, CFA</span></h4>
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US, Europe, Japan

Given the scope for significant regulatory change in the US following elections, crypto markets should see higher volatility into Nov as sentiment swings with election odds.

Crypto Digest: US politics’ influence on sentiment

Cryptocurrencies offer a new paradigm of decentralized, logic-driven money. Adoption is increasing, given its potential for new applications, but much remains uncertain.

Digital currencies: Perspectives and potential

With the US Fed kickstarting its rate cut cycle with a strong 50bp cut, the focus shifts to Japan and the Eurozone.

Japan & Eurozone: On their own beat

Fed pivots to supporting the labour market 

Volatile global markets and supply shocks have weighed on crypto prices, but ETH ETF outflows are easing.

Crypto Digest: Outflows stabilizing across Ether ETFs

Webinar: Digital Assets Update 3Q24

Crypto markets are volatile and increasingly focused on the US elections for cues toward greater acceptability. CBDC trials, design, and experiments continue.

Digital Assets Update 3Q24: Crypto and US politics

The BOJ has announced a reduction in monthly JGB purchases from JPY 6tn to JPY 3tn, and raised the overnight call rate from 0-0.1% to 0.25% 

Japan: Gentle QT and strategic rate hike

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Malaysia: Higher inflation and upside OPR risk from Budget 2025 policies

Economic growth slowed from 4.7% YoY in 2Q24 to 4.6% in 3Q24.

China: Sub-5% 3Q growth calls for more stimulus

BI pauses on rates to factor in global uncertainties and to preserve domestic financial market stability ahead of new government&rsquo;s inauguration.

Indonesia: Rate pause, new government

Policy Address lays foundation for cyclical rebound when interest rate cuts kick in.

HK policy address: More growth boosting measures

Asset Risks: Interest rate risk score eases after Fed’s 50bps cut 

Our takeaways from the MAS October 2024 policy review and 3Q24 advance GDP growth estimates.

Singapore: Better growth, lower inflation, steady policy

India: Rate pause amidst strong foreign reserves, eye on oil

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CIO Insights 4Q24: In a Sweet Spot

The Value in Bitcoin Volatility

US Presidential Election: Market Impact

Credit: The Trump Effect on Bonds

The ASEAN Portfolio

CIO Industry Guide: August 2024

US, Europe, Japan

Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34

Crypto Digest: US politics’ influence on sentiment

Digital currencies: Perspectives and potential

Japan & Eurozone: On their own beat

Fed pivots to supporting the labour market

Crypto Digest: Outflows stabilizing across Ether ETFs

Webinar: Digital Assets Update 3Q24

Digital Assets Update 3Q24: Crypto and US politics

Asia

Navigating High Winds: Southeast Asia Outlook 2024 – 34

Research Library

Malaysia: Higher inflation and upside OPR risk from Budget 2025 policies

China: Sub-5% 3Q growth calls for more stimulus

Indonesia: Rate pause, new government

HK policy address: More growth boosting measures

Asset Risks: Interest rate risk score eases after Fed’s 50bps cut

Singapore: Better growth, lower inflation, steady policy

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