- Relaxation in LTV and debt servicing ratio stabilises property investment demand in tandem.
- Mega events and proposed visa-free arrangement ought to attract tourists.
- Gold exchange is a key promising initiative.
- Offshore RMB products and funding channels like RMB/HKD dual counter and IPOs to be enriched.
Some measures aimed at stabilising various property asset classes were announced. The HKMA will increase the maximum loan-to-value ratio (LTV) for residential properties to 70%, regardless of: 1) property value, 2) self vs company ownership, and 3) first-time homebuyer status. The maximum debt-servicing ratio will be 50%. With rising rental yields, enlarged leveraging room will bolster investment demand. As of August 2024, the average rental yield reached 2.92%. After September's 25bps Prime Rate cut, the effective mortgage rate fell from 4.125% to 3.875%. The negative carry has narrowed from the peak of 1.8% points in 2H2023 to 0.96% points now. This trend will likely extend amid the Fed Funds rate cut cycle.
Another key policy is the relaxation of the “New Capital Investment Entrant Scheme”. Eligible investment products will extend beyond financial products to residential properties. For properties with a transaction price no less than HKD50mn, HKD10mn will count towards the HKD30mn investment requirement. This could stimulate demand for luxury residential properties. In fact, there has been strong mainland investor demand this year after the February stamp duty cancellation. In 1H2024, the share of mainland investors outpaced Hong Kong in both primary and secondary markets.
Non-residential properties such as retail shops and commercial real estate will also benefit from the new policy. The maximum LTV and debt servicing ratio will be adjusted to the same respective levels as residential units. This could ease refinancing pressure for business owners and investors.
Consumption
The Government proposes further enhancements on Mainland tourism visit endorsements, including resuming "multiple entry" for Shenzhen residents and expanding the coverage of pilot cities for implementing policies on the "one trip per week". Multiple-entry visas for ASEAN countries for travel and business will also be relaxed with easier immigration clearance.
Working Group on Developing Tourist Hotspots and the Mega Events Coordination Group is set up to further promote the “event economy”. The tax on spirits with an import price higher than HKD 200 will be cut from 100% to 10%. Currently, alcoholic beverages with an alcohol content above 30% are subject to a 100% tariff.
While large scale events provide incentives for visitors, the US Fed Fund rate downcycle favors Hong Kong retail sales. With an expectation of 200 bps cut by the end of 2025, we currently project USD/CNY to reach 6.90. The weakening HKD will improve visitors' purchasing power and discourage local residents from outbound travel. Meanwhile, Hong Kong residents may stay for mega events with weaker HKD.
Talent
Top Talent Scheme is expanding its eligibility to 198 universities in the world, by adding 13 top mainland and overseas universities. Visa under the scheme will also be extended from two years to three years. General Employment Policy and the Admission Scheme for Mainland Talents and Professionals will also be enhanced to draw specialists in specific trades facing manpower shortage to come to Hong Kong.
Talent list now includes talents required for development of the "eight centres". Looking at employment by industries, the transportation and storage has an immediate need of talent. Information Technology, which receives a HKD10 bn Innovation & Technology Industry-Oriented Fund this year, also requires more talents. Its vacancy rate has been increasing since the pre-COVID period.
Financial Centre
Hong Kong’s status of international financial center hinges crucially on development of RMB internationalization. Middle East is key focus, as expressed in the policy address. Opportunities stem from increasing China’s oil imports from Middle East and its ODI in the region. Hong Kong will facilitate as an offshore RMB transactions by providing more variety of financial products such as A-share derivatives, offshore bonds and RMB dual counter securities.
On capital market, Hong Kong will spare no effort in attracting Middle East sovereign wealth funds to invest in China and Hong Kong. According to the Policy Address, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) tracking Hong Kong stock indices will be launched in the Middle East. HKEx will continue to encourage more listed companies to have shares listed in the RMB stock trading counter and expand the scope of RMB equities. Currently, there are only 24 HKD-RMB dual counter securities listed, with no further expansion since the programme launched in June.
For fixed income, the HKEx will expand Southbound Bond Connect scope of eligibility. HKEx will increase the issuance of offshore RMB bonds and seek support from China to launch offshore RMB sovereign bond futures, thereby providing more investment products to international investors.
Hong Kong will establish itself as a Gold Exchange Centre. Global central banks are increasing their exposures to gold. China is no exception. Its gold reserve increased from USD117 billion in December 2022 to USD191 billion in September 2024.
Hong Kong is one of the portals for importing gold into China in 2023, with an increase of 38% YoY. This year, China also exported 63.8 tonnes of gold to Hong Kong in the first eight months, a significant increase of 102% YoY. The setup for a gold trading market and gold storage facilities will spur development of the related industry chain, ranging from investment transactions, derivatives, insurance, storage, to trading and logistics services. In addition, officials will also explore the inclusion of gold-related products in the Connect program.
Innovation
In line with national policies on new quality productive forces, the Hong Kong government has made efforts to grow the tech startup sector. As mentioned, the government will set up a HKD10 billion I&T Industry-Oriented Fund to support healthcare tech, AI, robotics, semiconductors, and renewable energy development. The low-altitude economy is another key focus. The government will invest in drone-related infrastructure such as charging stations, and promulgate the Development Outline for the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park in the Loop.
International trade and business center
The key to reviving Hong Kong's growth engine is attracting foreign corporates to set up regional headquarters. While the total number of foreign corporates in 2023 remained largely comparable to 2019 levels, the number of regional headquarters fell 12.7% over the same period. This suggests foreign companies are downsizing their presence in Hong Kong.
In response, this year the government will submit a bill to introduce company re-domiciliation to ease office setup costs in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, multiple-entry visa validity for foreign staff, including non-permanent residents, will extend to five years to facilitate Mainland visits.
For international trade, Hong Kong will continue focusing on the ASEAN and Middle East markets. As of August 2024, ASEAN became Hong Kong's second largest export destination, while the Middle East overtook Japan, accounting for 3% of total exports. For Middle East, the Hong Kong government is in discussions with Saudi Arabia and Egypt on trade deals.
Infrastructure is key to Hong Kong’s status as an aviation center. The government pledged to double the airport city scale on Lantau Island. Investment in new facilities like Phase 2 of the Asia World Expo is now underway. The third runway system development will complete by year-end, expected to increase aviation capacity 50% by 2035.
Conclusion
The Policy Address has laid the foundation for a cyclical rebound when interest rate cuts kick in. For the property market, relaxing LTV and debt servicing ratios will help stabilize investment demand. Likewise, mega events and enhanced visa-free arrangements will attract more tourists with a weakening HKD.
For medium-long term growth, Hong Kong is set to strengthen its status as an international financial center and trade hub. The most important initiative is establishing a gold exchange. For RMB internationalization, financial regulators will continue enriching RMB products and funding channels like RMB/HKD dual counters and IPOs. On trade, infrastructure is key to Hong Kong’s aviation center status. Visa arrangement enhancements for foreigners will also help attract foreign companies to set up regional headquarters in Hong Kong.
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Nathan Chow 周洪禮
Senior Economist and Strategist - China & Hong Kong 高級經濟學家及策略師 - 中國及香港
[email protected]
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