Grab Holdings: Inline adjusted EBITDA; focus on market share in Mobility

Sachin Mittal15 Aug 2024
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  • 2Q24 group adj EBITDA of USD64mn (up 3% q/q) inline driven by lower fintech losses and regional corporate costs offsetting Mobility weakness. 
  • GRAB promoted its savings products to grow Mobility GMV sequentially.   
  • 1H24 adj EBITDA of USD126mn is 46% of the consensus FY24F adj EBITDA of USD275mn, implying upside potential to consensus projections. 
  • Maintain BUY at an unchanged TP of USD4.50 as GRAB offers highest growth among internet stocks in our coverage – an adj group EBITDA CAGR of 77% over FY24F-26F.


GRAB reports group adj EBITDA of USD64mn (up 3% q/q) on lower than expected fintech losses and regional corporate costs.
 GRAB recorded group adj EBITDA of USD64mn (up 3% q/q) meeting consensus expectations. Lower than expected fintech losses and regional corporate costs offset weakness in mobility segment. Fintech adj EBITDA losses narrowed by USD4mn q/q (to USD24mn) on lower incentives. Regional corporate costs narrowed by USD7mn (to USD84mn) on lower staff cost. Mobility segment’s adj EBITDA was USD129mn (+13% y/y, -7% q/q) compared to consensus’ USD139mn, on aggressive rollout of new initiatives (Saver and Advanced Booking). While deliveries adj EBITDA of USD42mn (+320% y/y, flat q/q) broadly in line with consensus estimates. GRAB’s on-demand (Mobility plus deliveries) of USD4,434mn (+13% y/y, +5% q/q) was in line with consensus despite an adverse impact of 5% y/y from a strong USD. Deliveries GMV saw rising contribution from advertising and Jaya Grocer, and Saver now accounts for 28% of total Deliveries transactions (26% in 1Q24). Fintech continues to see increasing contribution from GrabFin and Digibank with total loans disbursed growing 43% y/y (up 4% q/q) to USD500mn in 2Q24. 

GRAB guides for its adjusted free cash flow to be positive in FY24F; share buyback to accelerate in 2H24F. GRAB maintains group adj EBITDA for FY24F to hover between USD250mn – USD270mn, where the higher end of the guidance is inline with consensus. In addition, GRAB expects FY24F adjusted free cash flow (FCF) to remain positive. GRAB has bought-back shares worth USD131mn by 1H24, leaving 74% of USD500mn buyback program to be completed in 2H24F. The number of repurchased shares represent 1.3% of its total shares.  Maintain BUY at an unchanged TP of USD4.50 as GRAB offers highest growth among internet stocks in our coverage – an adj EBITDA CAGR of 77% over FY24F-26F driven by deliveries growth and a reduction in fintech losses.




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