EUR Rates: A relatively more dovish ECB is already factored in
ECB vs. Fed pricing stretched.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow16 Oct 2024
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Implied rates are signalling that the ECB would embark on a relatively more aggressive easing cycle compared to the Fed. To be sure, in absolute terms, the market is still looking at the ECB delivering 133bps of cuts over the coming year, slightly less than Fed pricing of 140bps. However, these masks the direction of travel and the level of policy rates that both central banks were at before the easing cycle began (the Fed hit a higher peak of 5.5% for the FFR, compared to the ECB’s deposit rate peak of 4%). A better way of comparing would be via relative pricing in the 1Y3M rates. Notably, the 1Y3M EUR-USD rates differentials have narrowed (turned more negative) by close to 30bps over the past three months, the most amongst the G10 rates. There are good reasons why EUR and USD rates are diverging, First, US economic surprises are to the upside, dragging USD rates up in the process, in contrast to negative data surprises from the Eurozone. Second, US political considerations are coming back under the radar. Trump’s odds of election have risen, and this requires USD rates to factor in perceived higher growth / inflation risks. At this point, the 1Y3M EUR-USD rates differential, at about -130bps, looks modestly stretched to the downside. A fair amount of ECB easing has already been priced and we are not convinced there would be much more room for EUR rates to drift lower. Moreover, risk aversion is now capping USD rates in the short term. A further narrowing of spread would likely require a revisit of 2Q, when the market was pricing in no-landing for the US economy. 





Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 


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