Economics Weekly: Worse-than-expected 4Q22 GDP Data for South Korea & Taiwan
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Economics Research27 Jan 2023
  • S. Korea & Taiwan: Worse-than-expected 4Q22 GDP numbers; growth numbers revised downwards
  • Thailand: Elevated core inflation risks due to higher cost passthrough and rising inflation
  • Indonesia: Strong private consumption and public spending to offset emerging commodities softness
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South Korea & Taiwan: Worse-than-expected 4Q22 GDP data has sharply lowered projection trajectories for 2023. Without a strong and immediate rebound in 1Q23, the annual growth figures in 2023 will be negatively affected. The latest PMI surveys suggest that the sequential contraction in manufacturing activities in these two economies has stabilised since the end of 2022. Still, a rebound is yet to be in sight.

From a fundamental point of view, the tech-driven exports downcycle in South Korea and Taiwan may not turn around very soon. The global semiconductor sector is undergoing a typical cyclical adjustment characterised by a supply glut and price declines. Historical experiences suggest that inventory correction in the semiconductor sector will last for 2-4 quarters. The current correction will likely continue into 1H23.

In South Korea, the headwinds weighing on domestic demand will likely persist through this year, considering the lagging impact of rate hikes and liquidity tightening. These include hard landing risks in the property market and deleveraging pressures in the indebted corporate and household sectors. The country’s property market downcycles typically take 2-3 years to complete.

China’s economic rebound may not translate into a full-fledged recovery in imports from South Korea and Taiwan in the near term. A normalisation of China’s consumption and investment demand and restoration of Chinese supply chains should help to lift the imports of intermediate goods from South Korea and Taiwan. Nonetheless, China’s access to advanced semiconductors will face restrictions due to the United States’ recent broadening of export controls on chip sales to China, which took effect in Oct 22.

Furthermore, the benefits of China’s reopening on South Korea’s and Taiwan’s tourism sectors will likely be limited. Beijing imposed a ban on mainland tourists visiting Taiwan in 2019 due to the deterioration in cross-Strait relations. It will likely retain the ban this year because of rising political uncertainties in the run-up to Taiwan’s next presidential elections in early 2024. China-South Korea ties also face new challenges as Seoul seeks closer collaboration with Washington on national security and defence. Recently, Seoul imposed screening measures against travellers arriving from China and suspended the issuance of tourism visas for Chinese travellers till end-January. China retaliated by suspending all short-term visas for South Korean travellers.

We are downgrading the annual GDP growth forecasts for South Korea and Taiwan. South Korea’s 2023 growth forecast is lowered to 1.5% from 1.8%, while Taiwan’s to 1.6% from 2.3%. Our base case forecasts imply a marginally positive q/q growth in 1Q23, on-trend 2-3% growth in 2Q23, followed by a stronger recovery in 2H23. Under the bear case scenario of a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of q/q contraction in 4Q22-1Q23), full-year growth in these two economies would fall further to around 1.0%.

Download the PDF to read the full report which includes insights on Thailand and Indonesia 

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