The RBI monetary policy committee’s concern over the trajectory of food inflation is likely to play out in the June print. Inflation due later today is expected to quicken to 5% yoy from 4.75% the month before on higher food costs, reflected in the steeper 2.6% MoM assumption vs 0.7% in May. A weak start to the southwest monsoon in June and prolonged heatwave impacted vegetable prices, in turn (likely) pushing food inflation back above 8%. Encouragingly, rainfall has regained momentum into the crucial month of July, allaying supply concerns. Vegetables also have a short crop cycle, helping to make related price pressures less pervasive. July-August inflation will benefit from favourable base effects, but the scale of correction will be shallower than previously anticipated on still elevated vegetables. A telecom tariff hike by local producers will impart 18-22bp upside to the July headline. MSPs for the FY25 kharif crop have also been raised but the aggregate pace is modest when compared to FY24 (see here).
With the MPC’s concerns validated, we don’t expect the central bank to deviate from their preference to keep the repo rate on hold when they meet next month. The final FY25 Budget will be tabled on July 23, where we expect a) FY25 fiscal deficit to be 10bps better than -5.1% in the interim version; b) unchanged borrowing program apart from a reduction in the Tbill issuances; c) maintenance of capex allocations; d) tapping of revenue buffer to meet consumption boosting and social sector measures; e) commitment towards medium-term fiscal consolidation by lower deficits for FY26-FY27. We will delve into details in a subsequent Budget preview note. INR benchmark yields are likely to ease on sustained foreign interests and softer global rates after the overnight supportive US inflation print.
Topic
Explore more
E & S Macro StrategyThe information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). This report is intended for “Accredited Investors” and “Institutional Investors” (defined under the Financial Advisers Act and Securities and Futures Act of Singapore, and their subsidiary legislation), as well as “Professional Investors” (defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong) only. It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.
This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.
DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability. 13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR
Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply. The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice.