Equities Weekly | Global Oil and Gas – Trump Victory a Positive for US O&G
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Chief Investment Office4 Dec 2024
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Global Oil and Gas: Trump victory a positive for US O&G. Trump’s victory has lifted sentiments for US oil and gas (O&G) players, though it remains to be seen whether this can be sustained. While US shale oil production is largely affected by market factors rather than politics, Trump’s focus on energy security and his administration’s ambition to increase domestic oil and gas production by 3mmbpd certainly skews production growth to the upside.

Brent crude oil prices have fallen over 15% in 2H24 to recent lows of c.USD70/bbl, as compared to the average of USD85/bbl in 2Q24, given increased demand side risks and diminished tensions in the Middle East. The spectre of OPEC+ unwinding its voluntary supply cuts has further kept a lid on oil prices. While demand risks persist, we think that the expectations for oil to approach the USD70/bbl mark appears to be overstated considering the persistence of geopolitical risk and slight improvements in China’s economy due to recent stimulus measures.

Against a favourable policy backdrop in the US, which will likely see continued strength in domestic production, US integrated players, shale players, and oilfield services companies look poised to be beneficiaries of higher O&G activity levels. Potential Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, Chinese stimulus, and continued OPEC+ production discipline could add further upside for these players in 2025.

Bifurcation within DM equity flows: The week ending 27 Nov saw US Equity Funds adding another USD36bn of new funds, extending their inflow streak to eight consecutive weeks. Funds with large cap mandates accounted for a majority of inflows, but US Small Cap Equity Funds led the way in relative terms (as a percentage of AUM). Within the Developed Market (DM) space, Europe and Japan Equity Funds saw redemptions hitting eight- and seven-week highs. Emerging Market (EM) Equity Funds posted their seventh straight week of outflows; EMEA Equity Funds and Global EM Equity Funds experienced USD126mn and USD1.4bn of net redemptions respectively. There were modest inflows to EM Equity ETFs, a reflection of the growing footprint of these generally passively managed vehicles.


Figure 1: Sentiment on US O&G lifted by Trump victory


Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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