Equities Weekly | AxJ Equities – Opportunities Amid Trade Tensions
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Chief Investment Office22 Jan 2025
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Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) equities: Opportunities amid trade tensions. The potential return of Trump 1.0 policies, particularly the risk of tariffs, could create headwinds for AxJ, especially China, which would be impacted by trade restrictions on key exports such as low-end goods, electric vehicle batteries, and solar panels. However, we believe these risks are largely priced in, and Asia's ability to adapt — through diversifying supply chains, deepening regional integration, and securing new trade ties in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America — offers a buffer against the negative impacts of any new tariffs.

Despite near-term uncertainties, AxJ remains attractive from an investment perspective due to its improving corporate profitability, particularly with rising return on equity (ROE), and its steep valuation discount relative to developed markets. Trading at a 33% discount, the region offers compelling upside potential, especially as investor sentiment shifts and underweight positions begin to narrow. This, combined with the tailwinds of falling global interest rates as well as targeted fiscal and monetary support, positions AxJ for sustained earnings growth and shareholder returns. We recommend investors to stay engaged with the markets in AxJ, with regional banks, S-REITs, technology supply chains, and tourism plays continuing to be the bright spots.

Equity fund flows: The week ended 15 Jan witnessed inflows of USD15.3bn for Developed Markets (DM) Equity Funds, and an outflow of USD2.2bn for Emerging Markets (EM) Equity Funds. US Equity Funds saw a third consecutive inflow of USD11.6bn as the market began preparing for the potential return of Donald Trump while US economic data was better than expected. Europe continued the outflow trend of USD0.7bn as Germany’s economy continues to struggle and Eurozone inflation creeps higher. Within the EM space, China Equity Funds experienced outflows of USD0.8bn as deflationary pressures persisted, underscored by weak inflation and ongoing producer price index (PPI) declines.

Figure 1: AxJ improving shareholder returns


Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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