Malaysia: BNM’s policy rate at optimal level
Comfortable with steady rates.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng12 Jul 2024
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We maintain our forecast for a steady OPR at 3.00% in 2024. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) extended its overnight policy rate (OPR) hold at 3.00% for the seventh straight meeting on July 11, indicating comfort with its current monetary policy stance. BNM stated that its stance ‘remains supportive of the economy and is consistent with the current assessment of inflation and growth prospects.’

BNM anticipates higher but manageable inflation in 2H24, amid the rationalisation of diesel subsidies in June, and continues to forecast headline inflation averaging within its 2.0-3.5% range. We think BNM is unlikely to raise its OPR pre-emptively, despite vigilance to upside price risks from changes in domestic policy on subsidies and price controls. According to Prime Minister Anwar on July 2, the government has yet to draft a policy paper for the RON95 fuel subsidy rationalisation. Any delay in RON95 fuel subsidy reduction would push bigger upward inflation pressures from 2024 to 2025. Considering a gradual approach to fuel subsidy rationalisation, we recalibrate our headline inflation forecasts to 2.4% for 2024 and 2.8% for 2025, from 2.9% and 2.5% previously.

BNM observed sustained Malaysian economic strength in 2Q24, supported by resilient domestic spending and improving exports. The central bank remains optimistic about the domestic growth outlook, despite acknowledging downside risks to its global growth expectations. BNM expects Malaysia’s electronics exports to benefit from the global tech upcycle, a rise in foreign tourist arrivals, and supportive household spending and investment activity. BNM recognised the positive impact on the Malaysian ringgit from co-ordinated efforts with government-linked companies and government-linked investment companies to repatriate their foreign investment income, as well as corporate engagements. Given the success in stabilising the ringgit, we expect policymakers to rely on these initiatives rather than raising the OPR if the currency faces unexpected renewed weakening pressures from external dynamics.

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Economist - Asean
[email protected]


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