EUR rates are performing better than USD rates from a receive perspective over the past few months as domestic political uncertainties and the threat of tariffs from the incoming Trump administration looms. At this point, there is still no resolution in the French budget talks where Prime Minister Barnier had planned for EUR 60bn of spending cuts / tax increases. Risks of a no-confidence vote against the French PM, which could come as soon as Wednesday, probably added to worries. Stresses are showing up in the 10Y OAT-Bund spread, which has widened out to 80bps, up from close to 50bps at the start of the year. Accordingly, there is probably some switching into perceived greater safety in Bunds, driving core EUR rates lower in the process.
Meanwhile, there is increasing speculation that the ECB would have to take a more dovish stance in the coming few months amidst the increasing likelihood that there would be more trade frictions with the US under a Trump administration. Coupled with relatively weak Eurozone data, the market is now anticipating close to 175bps of ECB cuts by the end of 2025 compared to just about 75bps for the Fed over the same period. This situation is not unique to the Eurozone. In economies where trade flows are likely to be disrupted (Trump has threatened tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico), a more defensive stance from policy makers would likely be needed and that would likely entail lower rates, wherever possible.
Market participants are factoring in a fair amount of these developments. This can be seen by the rapidly widening spread of UST over German Bunds across all tenors as a mix of sentiment and central bank divergence gets reflected. While these spreads look stretched, a meaningful reversal would probably remain elusive until these factors fade.
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