With four key events looming (NFP on 1 Nov, NPCSC meeting on 4-8 Nov, US elections on 5 Nov and FOMC meeting outcome, 8 Nov 2am SGT), USD rates are displaying a fair amount of duration fear. Making a call on each event is already tricky, let alone, calling a sequence of event outcome correctly. Moreover, there is also a need to consider how much of each event may already be priced. First, we think that market moves post NFP is likely to be mixed. Intuitively, a strong NFP should put upward pressures on 2Y yields and result in a flatter curve. However, a weak print, which should result in bull steepening, may be explained away by weather and strike effects. Second, there is some optimism that China would embark on more aggressive fiscal stimulus and that further measures / details could be forthcoming. Some of this can be viewed on the fact that 10Y CGB yields are hovering above 2.1% (from close to 2% at the end of September). If there is greater optimism on China’s growth, there could be better sentiment, buoying longer-term US yields in the process. Third, duration fear is perceived to be more acute (driving yields higher) under a Trump Presidency. Currently, betting odds are putting Trump (with a Republican sweep) as a base case. Accordingly, we think that financial markets are already braced for this scenario, with yields significantly higher now than they were just a month ago. Note that this is just the first order impact, there will be reconsiderations as new policies get implemented by the President. Fourth, the Fed was clearly dovish back in September and would likely cut again next week. However, with data staying resilient thus far, any hint of data dependence and optionality on the Fed’s path may well be viewed as a dial back in dovishness, bear steepening the curve in the process. The upshot is that yields have climbed significantly as market participants place bets on these outcomes. If the event outcomes skew towards better economic prospects / higher inflation, yields can drift higher, but we reckon that a large chunk may already be in the price. 
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