Shell
The latest investment analysis on Shell
Group Research - Equities11 Nov 2024
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Company Overview
Shell plc (Shell), formerly The Royal Dutch Shell plc, is an international energy and petrochemical major engaged in the exploration, production, refining and marketing of oil and natural gas, and the manufacturing and marketing of chemicals. With 82,000 employees, Shell has operations in over 70 countries, producing 2.864mmboepd of oil & gas in 2022, of which oil and liquids accounted for 53% and the remaining 47% natural gas.


Investment Overview
Robust earnings potential with sustainable growth. Shell has been in the forefront in terms of decarbonisation targets with a goal of reducing Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 50% in 2030, setting the path to reach the planned net-zero earnings strategy by 2050. Shell has been focusing interests on cleaner initiatives such as carbon, capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, wind and solar power. In the short term though, we are expecting growth in cash flows to stem from the integrated gas segment as gas prices remain buoyant and upstream oil segment remains well supported by global supply constraints and geopolitical tensions as well. Strong cash flows from legacy businesses, together with investments in low carbon businesses, provides Shell a superior position in the industry.

Upstream and Integrated Gas to be the revenue drivers in near term. The Integrated Gas segment drove earnings in 2022-23, lifted by the high spot LNG prices and huge trading profits. Though LNG prices have moderated, they are well above pre-COVID levels and Integrated Gas segment performance will remain a major driver. Upstream business will also continue reporting robust earnings in future as global oil macro remains positive, and production startups in deep water support volumes.

New strategic direction sees higher focus on returns. In June 2023, Shell unveiled new long-term strategy under CEO Wael Sawan, which will see increased focus on shareholder distribution (30-40% of OCF instead of 20-30%) while keeping oil output steady through the decade and reining in capex. In a bid to regain investor confidence amid a period of high energy prices, Shell has scrapped its earlier plans to cut oil output by 20% by 2030 and has decided to focus on growing its natural gas business given its status as the world’s largest LNG player and trader. Shell plans to grow its LNG business by 20-30% by 2030, compared with 2022, and purchased LNG volumes are planned to grow by 15-25%, relative to 2022. The recently announced acquisition of Singapore-based Pavilion Energy is in line with the above targets. Capex for 2024/25 has been guided at USD22-25bn range. Of the total capex for next 3 years, around USD40bn will be for upstream and LNG business, while around USD35bn earmarked for downstream and low carbon businesses (of which USD10-15bn for low-carbon). 

We have a BUY call on Shell with a TP of GBP32. Shell’s slight shift away from lower return low carbon businesses follows rival BP’s move earlier in 2023 and has been since rewarded by the market. Shell’s high yield and payout ratio compared to peers provides more wealth to investors and management will remain focused on this core strategy. Including dividends and buybacks, total shareholder distributions imply around 10% yield at current prices. 3Q24 results showed strong earnings beat and should help improve investor confidence in Shell's ongoing transformation.  Our TP is based on a 1.3x forward P/BV multiple.


Risks
Shell is exposed to significant macroeconomic risks as earnings depend on the price volatility of crude oil, natural gas and other refinery products. Further, the company is postioned in a very competitive industry, especially earnings threat comes from sate-owned hydrocarbon entities and state backed utility entities. Shell's global presence exposes it to political and legal risks as changes to economic policies can impact the company's decisions.

Topic

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HONG KONG
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INDONESIA
PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas (Indonesia)
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THAILAND
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