E.ON
The latest investment analysis on E.ON
Group Research - Equities13 Dec 2024
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Company Overview
E.ON SE (E.ON), based in Germany, is one of Europe's largest operators of energy networks. It has three core segments: i) Energy Networks (74% of EBITDA) - consists of its power and gas distribution networks predominantly in Germany and Sweden, ii) Energy Infrastructure Solutions (6.5%) – engages in district heating & cooling, industrial & commercial solutions and smart metering (UK) and iii) Energy Retail (19.5%) – sales of electricity & gas to c.47mn customers.


Investment Overview
The playmaker of the green transition in Europe. Operating the largest energy distribution network in Europe, E.ON is uniquely positioned to capture the booming investment trends in electrification market amid the green energy transition. It is the dominant player of power grids with market share of 32% and 25% in Germany and Sweden with grid length of 694k km and 142k km respectively, and c.19% on average in other European countries they operate in. In the latest updated strategic plan announced in Mar-2024, E.ON has reiterated its focus to expand its low-risk regulated operations in power networks.

Accelerates investment to grow regulated asset base by 10% CAGR through 2028. Energy Network remains underinvested in Europe and is seeing massive growth to cope with higher demand growth spurred by electrification trend. E.ON’s capex run-rate has increased by ~40% in real terms to EUR5.2bn in 2021-2023. It plans to raise capex by another 10% to EUR5.7bn in 2024 and target to ramp up to EUR7.5bn pa by 2028, a 27% increase compared to previous 5-year plan. This would drive its Regulated Asset Base (RAB) growth at 10%/8% CAGR during 2023-2028 in main countries Germany (~75% of its network EBITDA) and Sweden (~9%) respectively. The step-up in investment would propel 5-year EBITDA CAGR to more than 6%, supporting up to 5% annual DPS growth.

Fairly predictable earnings; promising dividends. E.ON has a fairly predictable earnings and robust financial profile, deriving c.75% of EBITDA from fully regulated power and gas distribution activities, mainly in Germany. While EPS growth might be muted next 2-3 years in current high interest rate environment, EBITDA and dividend are expected to see mid-single digit growth. It is expected to pay c. EUR0.55/share for FY24, translating to c.4.5% dividend yield. It is a safe proxy to ride on power demand growth, which will potentially be boosted further by the AI boom.

Reiterate BUY with TP of EUR14.50. E.ON currently trades at ~12.2x P/E, below its 5-year historical average of 12.6x. On EV/EBITDA basis, the stock is trading at ~6.7x, a tad higher than its 5-year average of 6.3x, but below the MSCI EUROPE Multi-Utilities Index (7x). We value E.ON based on 7.3x EV/EBITDA or 1SD above 5-year mean, arriving at TP of EUR 14.50/share. We believe E.ON is amongst the best proxies for Network, offering yield of over 4%.


Risks
Key risk is the regulatory environment, especially in Germany, if policies become less supportive and affects RAB returns. We view this as low likelihood though in the near future.

Topic

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