Fixed Income Weekly | Brace for a December Rate Cut Despite Sticky Inflation
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Chief Investment Office12 Dec 2024
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FOCUS OF THE WEEK

Headline and core CPI both came in at 0.3% m/m sa, in line with consensus estimates. From our perspective, the sequence of firm inflation prints over the past four months increasingly suggests that disinflation may have stalled. Within the different components, good price inflation was firm (0.3%) even as shelter prices (which have been elevated for an extended period) appear to be drifting lower. In any case, core services, excluding rent, is now running at a 4.2% three-month annualised pace. Some caution in the pace of easing is warranted.

The US Treasuries curve initially bull-steepened amid relief that the CPI prints were in line. However, that did not last long and the curve bear steepened subsequently. To be sure, the odds of a December cut is now at 98%, up from 85% before the data was released. As mentioned previously, the current Fed Ffunds rate of 4.75% is restrictive by any measure and it would be very difficult for data to derail another 25 bps cut next week. However, market participants (as well as Fed officials) are not gravitating towards a slower pace of cuts through 2025. Increased uncertainties from the incoming Trump administration at a time when the US economy is already resilient, suggests that term premium and implied real yields should stay elevated. We reckon that 10Y US yields should hover in the 4-4.50% range with a bias to the upside amid positive risk sentiment thus far.

Figure 1: Changes in spreads

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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