FX Tacticals: Stay Positive on the EUR as French Concerns Fade
EUR-CHF may still have upside
Treasury & Markets, Terence Wu5 Jul 2024
  • First round results of French elections brought relief to the market; EUR persists in recovery phase
  • Our 21 Jun long EUR-CHF has performed well, hitting the TP level on 1 Jul
  • The upswing in EUR-CHF has been strong, and there could be further extensions for this pair
  • We extend the target price of EUR-CHF higher towards the cyclical peak near 0.9900
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The outcome of the first round of the French legislative election brought relief to the market. The most uncomfortable outcome has likely been avoided.

  • The first round of the French legislative elections concluded on 30 Jun, with results coming in early this week. The vote shares for the main political groups are: 33.2% for the right-wing parties, 28% for the left-wing alliance, and 20.8% for Macron’s centrist parties. Given this projection, the odds of the right-wing parties, led by Marine Le Pen, forming an absolute majority is thought to be slim.
  • Furthermore, the political manoeuvrings since then between the centrist parties and the left-wing alliance have been aimed at containing the right-wing, and further reducing the odds of the right securing the absolute majority. Should the right-wing parties only achieve a relative majority, they will not be able to pass legislation at will, and their impact on the French political landscape going forward will be less significant.
  • The market is taking this outcome with much relief. French-German yield spreads are narrowing towards the norm this week. In a sense, the market’s most uncomfortable scenario of a dominant right-wing presence with a free rein on the French fiscal policy is likely to be averted.

Figure 1: French-German yield spreads normalising this week

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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