Global Credit 2Q24: Navigating the Descent
Stay positive on bonds but be selective with risks
Chief Investment Office9 Apr 2024
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Persistent strength in growth and sticky inflation signal that the path to lower rates may not be as straightforward as initially imagined. Stay positive on credit. The sweet spot remains with A/BBB credit in the 3-5Y duration bucket.

  • Remain positive on bonds, but cautious with junk-rated debt and duration risks
  • Volatile yields and curve steepening given regime of fiscal dominance presents no compelling reason to take long-duration risk even on the brink of a cutting cycle
  • Fiscal expansion/monetary contraction dichotomy to widen divergences across economic sectors. Stay with highest quality fixed income, although private sector strength could see selective candidates in BB+ segment become rising stars


Figure 1: Treasuries account for nearly half of US fixed income today


Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, NBER, DBS. Note: Shaded areas represent NBER recessions


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Click here for the full 2Q24 CIO Insights publication.

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