This week’s featured insight is GDP Nowcast, which is best viewed as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data and forecasts for the current quarter. We currently produce Nowcasts for GDP growth in China, India, Indonesia, and Singapore.
Today we focus on Singapore’s real GDP, released in August, which grew by 2.9% YoY in 2Q24 and 3.0% YoY in 1H24, supported by favourable base effects. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted (QoQ sa) basis, the economy expanded by 0.4% in 2Q24, compared to a slightly upwardly revised 0.4% in 1Q24. Our Nowcast model expects growth to ease slightly to 2.6% YoY in 3Q24. This will be driven by a modest correction in re-exports and credit, while retail sales, hotel occupancy, and residential transactions are steady. IIP will likely improve slightly during the quarter, supported by electronics. After factoring in the growth performance in 1H24 and our expectations for a pick-up in sequential QoQ sa expansion in 2H24, we have maintained our 2024 growth forecast at 2.7%.
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DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.
DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability. 13th Floor One Island East, 18 Westlands Road, Quarry Bay, Hong Kong SAR
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