USD/IDR rose 0.3% to 16,612 overnight, near its Covid-19 low of 16575 in March 2020. Bank Indonesia intervened aggressively in the spot market, the domestic non-deliverable forwards, and the bond market to bring USD/IDR down from 16653, a level not seen since 1998. That said, the IDR was not the worst-performing currency in March. The TWD was the worst performer, followed by the KRW and the VND. The JPY’s 0.3% rise this month paled in comparison to February’s 3% appreciation, near the average in East Asia. It was more troubling that East Asian currencies underperformed despite the sharp decline in the USD Index (DXY) this month, a sign of local fragilities amid trade exposure to US-led global uncertainty before Trump’s reciprocal tariffs next week. 
Yesterday, the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index tumbled a fourth consecutive month to 92.9 in March, its worst reading since January 2021. The Expectations Index dropped to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years, well below the 80 threshold that usually signalled a US recession ahead. The cutoff date for the survey was March 19th, one day after the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model projected a -1.8% QoQ saar contraction for US GDP in the first quarter. US consumers were increasingly worried about economic and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration, especially inflation and the impact of trade policies and tariffs. For the first time since late 2023, more consumers expected the US stock market to decline vs. those who looked for the rise. 
Amid growing global trade and geopolitical uncertainties driven by US policies, East Asian nations should not be quick to brush aside the markets’ concerns and avoid complacency. Political stability is especially valuable when investors cherish predictability in an increasingly challenging global environment. Policy paralysis from internal political turmoil can worsen economic vulnerability. Markets reward stable governments that maintains social cohesion, especially reform-minded leadership that appreciates fiscal prudence and advances economic restructuring to navigate the challenges ahead. 
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