Fixed Income Weekly | Fed Easing and US Growth Resilience Diminish Recession Odds
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Chief Investment Office21 Nov 2024
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FOCUS OF THE WEEK

Recession odds, as measured by the yield curve, have tumbled since the beginning of the year. At the end of 2023, the 3M/10Y UST spread was close to -150 bps as a combination of economic pessimism amidst tight Fed policy. At that point, the NY Fed’s probability of recession over the next 12 months was around 63%. Fast forward to today, the Fed has already cut by 75 bps, implying that policy settings are now much less restrictive. As the Fed gets more concerned about supporting the economy, there should be less worries about hard landing risks. In any case, US data has been resilient thus far, debunking persistent speculation that the US economy may be in a downturn. Moreover, long-end rates are also concerned that Trump’s policies will introduce upside risks to growth and inflation dynamics at a time when the US economy is already firm. The 3M/10Y is now at -8 bps and odds of a recession are probably below 40%. We think that the UST curve is about fairly priced. The 2Y/10Y spread should be supported close to par as investors stay optimistic on US growth. Eventually, as the Fed maintains easing, the 3M /10Y segment of the UST curve would turn positive. However, if Fed easing gets constrained, scope for steepening would become more limited. The curve out to the 10Y segment would largely be flattish once the Fed finds its neutral for this cycle.

Figure 1: Changes in spreads

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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