Equities Weekly | India Equities – Opportunities Arise with Trump 2.0
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Chief Investment Office20 Nov 2024
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India equities: Opportunities arise with Trump 2.0. India's growth continues to gain momentum, driven by key catalysts like infrastructure investments, efforts to enhance human capital, streamlined direct subsidy transfers, productivity gains from digitalisation, expansion into high-value-added sectors like semiconductors, and a growing presence in global value chains. This growth is expected to improve in quality, supported by stable macroeconomic balances and evolving trade dynamics.

The Sensex recently fell to a five-month low, 10% below its 26 Sep peak, due to tepid earnings, foreign investor outflows, and inflation concerns. Trump's victory has disrupted the Asian market rally, with a strengthening dollar and rising bond yields. However, India may benefit from potential shifts in global trade dynamics. India was also less reliant on the pre-election Fed cuts and China’s stimulus measures.

Looking ahead, robust domestic liquidity and the possibility of interest rate cuts as food-driven cyclical inflation subsides present further opportunities. India’s role as a major US services outsourcing hub and increasing focus on infrastructure investment from the market’s large industrial firms are key growth drivers. To balance high valuations and capitalise on growth, we find small- and mid-cap funds appealing, especially to liquidity-rich domestic investors. Improved regulatory oversight could enhance risk management in these funds.

Bifurcation in equity fund flows: Bifurcation continues in fund flows (as of 13 Nov) with Developed Market (DM) Equity Funds attracting USD60.6 bn of inflows while Emerging Market (EM) Equity Funds registered USD5.1bn outflows. Within the DM space, US Equity Funds notched its sixth consecutive week of inflows at USD55.8bn as markets anticipate pro-business policies such as deregulation and tax reforms after Trump’s victory. In the EM space, China Equity Funds registered outflows of USD5.1bn as concerns over persistent deflation, weaker-than-expected industrial production, and fears of potential US tariffs erode investor confidence.


Figure 1: Sensex performance by market cap (Indexed)


Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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