Re-entering Short EUR-NZD on Bounce above 1.7800
Hawkish RBNZ gives NZD a boost
Treasury & Markets, Terence Wu24 May 2024
  • The bounce in the EUR was limited by key resistance levels. Negative bias on the EUR remains intact
  • The NZD received a boost from a surprisingly hawkish RBNZ. Global drivers have also turned positive
  • Putting EUR and NZD together, we think there is scope to re-enter EUR-NZD shorts on bounces
  • This is a continuation of our 5 Apr short EUR-NZD idea, which hit its target price on 22 May
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EUR bounce falters at a key resistance, EUR-negative bias still intact.   

  • In the 10 May edition of this publication, we suggested a short EUR-USD idea (entry: 1.0820; TP: 1.0620; SL: 1.0960). The technical argument at that time was that the EUR-USD is near the top of a year-to-date downtrend channel, and may be poised for a retracement lower. In the two weeks since, the EUR-USD breached the downtrend channel in a push towards 1.0900 (i). However, this breach may prove to be a false break, as the pair quickly reversed lower without mounting a strong test of the 1.0900 resistance. More importantly, the lower-highs-lower-lows pattern year-to-date has held (ii). Other technical indicators, such as the RSI (iii), also suggest that there is downside room for the pair. Overall, a further extension towards the bottom half of the trend channel between 1.0500 and 1.0600 remains in play (iv).      
  • From a fundamental perspective, a June rate cut at the European Central Bank (ECB) is well-expected by the market. Thus, the bearish impact from that move itself should be short-lived. The key for EUR bears is whether ECB President Christine Lagarde will guide for further cuts in 2H24.  

Figure 1: EUR-USD chart from Aug 2024

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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