Equities Weekly: US Equities – Tariffs and Policy Uncertainty Demand Diversified Investing Approach
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Chief Investment Office2 Apr 2025
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US equities: Tariffs and policy uncertainty demand diversified investing approach. The prospect of higher tariffs and a revival of growth fears in the US has cast a shadow on US equities this year; the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq composite have fallen 1.3%, 4.6%, and 10.4% respectively on a YTD basis (as at 31 Mar), with possibly more downside ahead. While consensus earnings growth has remained robust thus far (S&P 500 EPS growth for 2025 stands at c.10%), we believe the downside has yet to be reflected in analysts’ forecasts, and we anticipate more weakness ahead when downward earnings revisions begin.

This backdrop of policy uncertainty has several implications; business will likely hold back on investment decisions until further clarity emerges, similarly, consumers will likely postpone big-ticket item purchases until the economic fog is lifted. In short, US economic momentum is likely to slow, at least in the short term. Accordingly, we believe a more defensive tilt is necessary for investing in US equities in the upcoming quarter. Diversifying from “crowded trades” such as technology and consumer discretionary and seeking opportunities in sectors where earnings have a low correlation with major thematic drivers of ongoing market volatility (e.g. policy uncertainty, AI, geopolitical risk, etc.) including healthcare and consumer staples, will be key in shoring up portfolio resilience while waiting for an improvement in the growth outlook.

Equity fund flows: US Equity Funds saw significant outflows during the week ended 26 Mar, reflecting the deteriorating sentiment around tariffs and policy uncertainty under Trump 2.0. The group saw redemptions amounting to over USD20.3bn, with large cap value funds making the biggest contribution to the headline number. Europe Equity Funds extended their inflow streak to seven weeks, adding USD3.1bn of new monies on the back of strong flows into Germany Equity Funds. On the Emerging Market side, flows remained positive albeit modest. Asia ex-Japan Equity Funds saw an inflow of USD2.0bn while China Equity Funds added USD773mn during the week.

Figure 1: Elevated US policy uncertainty weighs on equity market


Source: Policyuncertainty.com, DBS


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